Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Prediction, preview, pick to win

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-6) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (6-4)

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium. TV: Fox, Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth, Shannon Spake (field reporter).

SERIES HISTORY: 48th regular-season meeting. Bucs lead series, 24-23, having won three of the past four games. Since the NFC South was formed in 2002, Atlanta has a 15-14 edge.

KEYS TO THE GAME: Last week against Miami, Tampa Bay gave up pass pays of 61, 49 and 45 yards. The Buccaneers’ defense cannot afford to surrender that kind of yardage to the high-powered Falcons offense.

With running back Devonta Freeman still in the concussion protocol and likely to miss another game, the Falcons must continue to target wide receiver Julio Jones. If Atlanta stretches the field, running back Tevin Coleman could find more open lanes.

Jones was targeted 30 times in the past three weeks — catching 17 passes for 246 yards — but Atlanta’s leading receiver hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since Oct. 22 against New England.

The Falcons have played their way back into the crowded NFC playoff picture, but with games against the 8-2 Vikings and 8-2 Saints coming up, this one is critical if they’re going to stay there.

Committing to getting the ball to wide receiver Mike Evans helped the Buccaneers last week.

Coming off a one-catch, 13-yard performance, Evans caught five for 92 in Tampa Bay’s 30-20 win in Miami.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was 22-for-37 for 275 yards and two touchdowns last week, will benefit from a second week of practice with the first team, in place of Jameis Winston, who has been ruled out with a shoulder injury.

–Falcons WR Julio Jones vs. Bucs CB Brent Grimes. Grimes has two interceptions. He’s quick to diagnose the play and tries to make plays on the ball. Jones has just one touchdown reception this season, but he leads the Falcons in receptions (54) and yards (786).

–Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant. Evans leads the Bucs in receptions (45) and yards (624) and has four touchdowns. He caught five passes for 92 yards last week against Miami after serving his one-game suspension for shoving Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Trufant returned a Russell Wilson interception 43 yards against the Seahawks. The Falcons are playing more man-to-man defense, but the Bucs are not expecting Trufant to match up with Evans.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Falcons RB Terron Ward. The Falcons are preparing as if they will be without running back Devonta Freeman for a second consecutive game. He’s in the league’s concussion protocol and missed the Seattle game. Running backs Tevin Coleman and Terron Ward filled in against the Seahawks. Coleman rushed 20 times for 43 yards, while Ward had 31 yards on six carries. Look for Ward to get some more of the work against the Bucs.

FAST FACTS: Tampa Bay QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has won his past two starts. He passed for 275 yards and two touchdowns last week. He has seven touchdowns vs. three interceptions in his past four games. … RB Doug Martin has 196 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown in his past two games vs. Atlanta. In four career games at Atlanta, he has 388 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown. … WR Mike Evans has 483 receiving yards (96.6 per game) and five touchdowns in his past five games against the Falcons. He has six touchdowns in his past eight games within the NFC South. … Rookie TE O.J. Howard has three touchdowns in his past three road games. He ranks third among NFL rookies with four receiving touchdowns. … TE Cameron Brate had touchdown catch in the last meeting between the teams. Since 2016, he ranks second among NFL TEs with 12 touchdown catches. … DT Gerald McCoy had a sack last week. He has five sacks and a forced fumble in his past five games against Atlanta. … LB Lavonte David has four forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries in his past six games. Since 2013, he is the only NFL player with 700 tackles (720) and 15 forced fumbles (16). … LB Kwon Alexander led the Bucs with eight tackles and had an interception in Week 11. He has two sacks, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in four career games vs. Atlanta. … CB Brent Grimes had 13 interceptions and in six seasons with the Falcons. (2007-12). … Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has 14 touchdowns vs. one interception in his past seven home games against Tampa Bay. He aims for his third straight 300-yard game against the Bucs. He has thrown touchdown passes in 28 consecutive games, the longest active streak. Since 2016, he is tied for the NFL lead with 53 touchdown passes and ranks third with 7,511 yards. … RB Tevin Coleman aims for his fourth game in a row with a touchdown. He had 117 yards from scrimmage (95 receiving) in his last home game vs. Tampa Bay. … WR Julio Jones ranks second in the NFC with 786 receiving yards. He has 521 yards (104.2 per game) and six touchdowns in five career home games against the Buccaneers. … WR Mohamed Sanu has a touchdown catch in three of his past four games. He had 80 receiving yards and a touchdown in the last home meeting. … TE Austin Hooper had a touchdown catch in last meeting. … LB Vic Beasley Jr. has seven sacks and three forced fumbles in his past nine home games. … DT Grady Jarrett has two sacks in his past three games vs. Tampa Bay. … DE Adrian Clayborn returned a fumble 10 yards for a touchdown in Week 11, his second career touchdown. … CB Desmond Trufant has two interceptions in his past three games against the Bucs. He had an interception last week, too.

PREDICTION: The Falcons likely saved their season by beating Dallas and Seattle the past two weeks. And, while Matt Ryan has yet to return to his 2016 form, he should be able to outduel the Bucs’ Ryan Fitzpatrick.

OUR PICK: Falcons, 26-17.

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Falcons vs. Cowboys recap: Atlanta’s best win of the season means hope for the future

I’ll be blunt: Even with Tyron Smith and Ezekiel Elliott out, I was worried the Dallas Cowboys would beat the Atlanta Falcons. Once Atlanta threw an interception on their first series and surrendered an early lead, that worry cemented into an ugly probability in my mind, and I braced for what was coming next.

So imagine my surprise when what followed was pure dominance by Atlanta, a 27 point explosion with zero points from Dallas, and a truly historic performance from an underrated defensive end. Imagine my surprise when the Falcons ended Sunday night at 5-4 and looking like the best versions of themselves once again, just in time for a road trip to Seattle. It was an encouraging, surreal performance that re-kindled my hope for this Falcons team, and minus that one unfortunate pick, they did all the things they were supposed to do in this one.

Start with the offense, which lost Devonta Freeman almost immediately. They got an efficient performance from Matt Ryan, a season-best game from Tevin Coleman, and great performances from virtually all their receivers, which helped make up for the fact that the Cowboys were killing the Atlanta offensive line early on. They managed 27 points on the day, and the execution was excellent and Steve Sarkisian’s play calling was, I thought, very good.

Then pivot to the defense, which turned in its best performance of the year. The Falcons exploded for eight sacks, nearly had two picks, and forced two fumbles while holding Dallas to just seven points in the contest. Adrian Clayborn basically single-handedly won this game for the defense with six sacks and two forced fumbles that simultaneously incapacitated and demoralized the Cowboys, and the rest of the defense did everything they needed to do to stymie Prescott, the team’s only effective player.

It was the kind of dominant effort that can make you believe dangerous things, like Atlanta going on a run and being able to handle contenders. If they’ve truly turned the corner, those dangerous thoughts may even come true, but for now it’s too soon to say whether this will be that inflection point or simply the 2014 beatdown of the Buccaneers. No matter what happens from here, though, this was exactly the kind of enjoyable beatdown we needed to stay invested in and happy with this team.

Seattle’s next, but at this moment in time, the Falcons look like a resurgent offense and excellent defense in search of better results. The Falcons thus far have been defined by their frustrating inability to string together quality performances, so they’re once again at an important crossroads. This was their first truly dominant win, however, and thus a reason for a spark of optimism at last.

Here’s our full recap. Enjoy, please.

The Good
Matt Ryan was truly excellent in this football game. He had a bit of a high throw to Mohamed Sanu on his interception and one overthrow to Marvin Hall, but otherwise he showed excellent pocket presence with the line collapsing around him and stepped up to throw lasers all over the field. He finished with 22 completions on 29 attempts, 215 yards, two touchdowns, and one unlucky pick. The latter have defined his season to this point, but the former numbers should be considered a good sign. With Devonta Freeman out, Tevin Coleman had to carry the load, and he did. After getting repeatedly stymied early on, he and the offensive line found a bit of a rhythm, and he finished with a respectable 83 yards on 20 carries, with a touchdown plunge in the mix. He is a very different runner from Freeman, and it will change the offense if he needs to be the featured back going forward, but I have a lot of confidence in his ability. Julio Jones was quiet—he had just six catches for 57 yards—but each catch was made with a high degree of difficulty, and he delivered. He almost always does. Taylor Gabriel had his best game of the season, and it’s no coincidence that coincided with one of the team’s better offensive performances. He finished with a team-high 58 yards on three receptions and added a 15 yard carry, punishing the Cowboys defenders every time he got the ball in his hands. When the team springs Gabriel and allows his speed to shine, the Falcons are a much more dangerous football team, and I hope they learn from that. The offensive line really rallied nicely in the second half after a very rough first half. The Falcons picked up 17 points after halftime and looked much better running the ball, and the line deserves a lot of credit for not just falling apart. Adrian Clayborn had an easy matchup in Chaz Green, sure, but he was absolutely dominant in this one. He had three sacks and a forced fumble in the first half, plus a hit that forced a third down Dak Prescott throw right into the dirt, and he looked like the most dominant player on the field, period, in that half of football.

Then Clayborn got a fourth sack in the second half. And then a fifth. And then a sixth, with an accompanying strip that resulted in a Falcons turnover. It was one of the most amazing performances I’ve ever seen by a Falcons defender, even with the level of competition, and an absolute joy to watch.

Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford each had a shaky play or two early—though Trufant got a pick called back by penalty—but Dak Prescott isn’t sitting there for Adrian Clayborn to destroy if the coverage breaks down, and the coverage rarely broke down. The Falcons’ secondary doesn’t always get the credit it deserves for the work it does, so shout out to them. I said after the Jets and Panthers games that I felt like Steve Sarkisian had done a better job calling those games, even if the Carolina game was marred by absolutely atrocious execution. If those were encouraging signs, this game was the first effort since Green Bay where I felt like the offense was firing on all cylinders and creative enough to win. Sark and company managed to spring Taylor Gabriel, feature Tevin Coleman effectively, and overcome the loss of Devonta Freeman. All in all, an encouraging game for the players and the coach alike, and one that should temporarily quiet the #FireSark talk.
The Ugly
The pass protection and run blocking were very brutally bad at times in this game, something that could be a limiting factor against a defense that has it together a bit more. Wes Schweitzer struggled again, which is getting a bit worrisome, and overall the line just wasn’t getting it done early on. They rallied, as I mentioned above, but this team will be somewhat capped by how well their offensive line fares. What else am I really going to linger on right now? I’m happy, you should be happy, let’s all be happy.
The Wrapup

Game MVP

Adrian Clayborn. My god, he ate Dallas! All of it! He didn’t even use a fork.

One Takeaway

This Falcons team truly does still have dominant performances within them. We had hoped, but seeing it confirmed matters a great deal with the playoffs still within striking distance.

Next Week

The Falcons take to the road one more time to face off against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s a bit of a mess at the moment, so the Falcons will hope they can take advantage. Check out the excellent Field Gulls for more.

Final Word

Impressive.

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The Hunt: Atlanta’s hidden serial killers

GO DEEPER: Watch the full investigation from 11Alive Chief Investigator Monday night at 11 on #TheLateFeed and then discuss the story on our Facebook page.

ATLANTA – Our city holds a deadly secret.

Someone’s been hunting, strangling, murdering women, dating back to 1970s.

According to a homicide detective-turned professor and a former data journalist, Atlanta is likely hiding some of the most prolific serial killers in U.S. history.

They’ve never been caught, and their crimes… left cold.

Numbers, data and an algorithm have done what detectives haven’t been able to do—outline the largest cluster of unsolved strangulation murders of women in the nation—more than 130 women who were strangled or asphyxiated to death, spanning over four decades. Most of these murders were committed within the city of Atlanta; all within the metro area.

Nearly 100 of those cases were reported as unsolved to the FBI.

News once plastered the TV, scrolled across newspapers, warning, informing, questioning.

“Women were warned to lock their doors and look out for each other,” 11Alive reported.

“She was beaten beyond recognition and strangled with a metal cord tightened around her throat."

“The women were all strangled and sexually assaulted…”

“The number one suspect in the murders of at least four women."

“Homicide detectives searched through the thick brush of a Southwest Atlanta lot looking for clues in the death of an identified woman…”

“Was she killed here, or did someone dump her body here? All questions homicide detectives are trying to answer tonight…”

But those reports didn’t lead to any clear-cut connection or illuminate a serial killer’s identity.

No one connected the dots. Until now.

01 / 24

“The public is fascinated with Jeffrey Dahmer, and the Zodiac, and the Son of Sam – the most important killers are the ones that we don’t even know about yet,” said Michael Arntfield, a former detective who leads The Cold Case Society in Canada shedding light on these cases—and making those connections.

“The most prolific serial strangler in American history, or multiple offenders operating in the same city with the same M.O. at the same time – all undetected,” he said.

The Cold Case Society 

Arntfield and the Cold Case Society study Thomas Hargrove’s eye-opening data.

Hargrove, a former journalist and the founder of the Murder Accountability Project, a non-profit in Washington, D.C., created an algorithm from not only FBI homicide data, but from police departments nationwide—and now is the most complete homicide database in the nation.

Math has done what forensics could not—create a pattern and pinpointing probable serial killers. And it’s his algorithm that signaled an alert over an Atlanta strangulation cluster spanning several years.

The victims of Atlanta’s unsolved murders now live only as zeros and ones on a computer hard drive in Hargrove’s home office in Alexandria, Va.

“We’ve assembled records now on 751,000 murders in the United States. And what the algorithm does is try to group those murders into meaningful clusters of murders,” Hargrove said scrolling across his computer screen full of colorful dots symbolizing killings nationwide.

The Murder Accountability Project mines the data, exploring connections between homicides across the country and creates clusters, indicating plausible serial killers. The algorithm seeks for similarities between who was murdered, how they were killed, where and when.

And the biggest cluster in the nation is Atlanta’s strangulation murders.

But, why couldn’t this just be a series of random events perpetrated by multiple individuals?

Approximately five percent of murders are by strangulation—however, 25 percent of serial killers’ M.O. is strangulation, he said.

“Why do we feel pretty confident that you have multiple serial killers in Atlanta? Because of mathematics. Strangulation is relatively rare. It is not rare in Atlanta,” Hargrove said.

Atlanta murder by the numbers

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Atlanta murder by the numbers

“[It’s] by far the largest series in modern history,” Hargrove said. “The odds of this being 133 individual killers who just were astonishingly lucky.”

“I would bet my house that, no, there are multiple serial killers at work, and they were very successful.”

The vast majority of those cases remain unsolved.

In the mid-90s, nine Atlanta prostitutes were murdered. Back then, the city was looking for a serial strangler. But at least five individual killers were eventually arrested.

The killings continued, and multiple cases remain unsolved.

“It’s almost as if you had a convention of serial killers who were stranglers, and you had them in Atlanta over many, many years,” Hargrove said.

And Atlanta, according to him, is unlike any other city.

“What is breathtaking is how these murders are quite different than what happens in most of America,” Hargrove said about other cities’ strangulation murders of women.

“About 80 percent of murders of women are solved. Someone is arrested. That’s because most women are killed by intimates – a boyfriend or a husband. Most of the time we get the guy who kills women. In this particular cluster, that hardly ever happened.”

Arntfield, who is also on the Murder Accountability Project board of directors, is a professor of criminology at Ontario’s Western University.

He and his student volunteers, who are part of the Cold Case Society, based in London, Ontario, are working with Atlanta investigators to confirm links between the killings, and to identify possible serial killers who were previously unknown to police.

From 1985 to 2016, there were 97 strangulation victims, and only 22 of the murders had been solved by the time of the report to the FBI for those years.

The Cold Case Society 

While most of these murders occurred before Arntfield’s students were born, they have the opportunity to approach the cases in a different way than a conventional detective might.

“The first victim in this series of killings, she was found dead March 1 in her apartment. She had been sexually assaulted and smothered with a pillow,” Brikena Qamili, currently a law student and the Atlanta Cluster Team Leader, said looking up from her research on her laptop. “We suspect that one or two serial killers were probably behind that cluster.”

“That’s a huge break, that someone can identify this guy and had a bad date with him,” Arntfield said in the intimate classroom of a half-dozen volunteer students and part of the Cold Case Society.

01 / 15

With cooperation from the Atlanta Police Department, Arntfield said, they have 44 names of victims.

“Now, we can begin doing victim work-ups on, to determine if there’s a common lifestyle characteristic, a common routine activity, if there’s a common neighborhood,” he said.

The team, however, is perplexed by the strangulation murders of more than a dozen elderly women over a 30-year period.

Much like the prostitute murders, there were arrests, but the killings continued sporadically for decades.

“Thirty years is almost unheard of,” Arntfield said.

And that means, multiple serial killers over three decades.

“We have multiples. Within just the sub-set of the elderly victims, and home-invasion strangulations which of themselves are extraordinarily rare,” he concluded.

We are just getting started on our hunt for Atlanta’s previously unknown serial killers.

For the victims who never got justice.

For the families who never got answers.

For the killers who never got caught.

Do you have a tip or clue that could solve these cold cases? Do you know who the serial killers are? Send 11Alive investigators, Brendan Keefe and Jessica Noll an email at TheHunt@11Alive.com.

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Walking on ‘The Walking Dead’ set in Atlanta

Andrew Lincoln on the prison set of an earlier season of the popular series

LOS ANGELES—“We treat it like our own private playground. It’s our private club… It’s like a thrill ride,” said Tom Luse, the first employee ever hired for “The Walking Dead,” as we began our tour of Raleigh Studios, where most of the show is filmed.

The studio, spread over 150 acres of woodsy areas that traverse bumpy roads, is in Senoia, Georgia, about an hour’s drive from Atlanta. Tom, who described himself as one of the show’s “many executive producers,” took us on a tour of the sets as we walked around or rode on a shuttle.

It was a sunny morning early this month. As we toured the vast lot, Andrew Lincoln and Jeffrey Dean Morgan were filming episode 12 of Season 8 in a sound stage.

“Denise Huth (producer) was working with our showrunner at the time and Gale Anne Hurd (producer),” said Tom, recalling how he became the first hire of the show, which recently celebrated its 100th episode. “I met with Gale and AMC over eight years ago. We figured out how to make a show about zombies.

“This studio has been our home for the last seven years,” Tom added as the shuttle started to roll, in a tour that lasted almost two hours, over dusty country roads, hilly terrains and woods. “We came here during Season 2. There was a farmhouse nearby that we found and it just happened to have a studio next to it so we settled in here. We’ve used this property very extensively.”

The following are excerpts from Tom’s comments:

The remains of Gabriel’s church are over in Alexandria (Virginia). We recycled the church that was Gabriel’s and put it as a decaying church in the outskirts of Alexandria.

The prison yard is gone and now you’ll see a new set that’s partly in that area. All prison interiors and exteriors were shot here for Seasons 3 and 4.

It was pretty quiet when we arrived here. What’s great for us is that it’s our campus. We treat it like our own private playground. This studio has been very cooperative about letting us play with it.

We’ve had fires and floods. We control about 150 acres of property here, and we use about every inch of it. We have two lakes on the property. We have two large creeks that intersect this land, so we have a lot of opportunities to film a variety of environments.

We have four relatively small soundstages. “The Walking Dead” is by and large not a sound stage-driven show. We shoot almost everything on location or build it with a fair amount of verisimilitude because that’s been our approach since the beginning.

We (Georgia) lead the world in bugs. And we also have more poisonous snakes in Georgia than any other state in the country… We have somebody who catches the snakes and takes them out of the area.
That is our auto graveyard over here with a lot of the vehicles we used or have used. We recycle all these vehicles and use them as background of other scenes where we have burned out vehicles.

It’s (The Heaps set) where the Scavengers live. We love shooting in The Heaps, except it’s kind of an Easy Bake Oven. If you come here in the summer, the wind does not move. You just bake in the sun.

The prison yard has double fences around and the guard tower … a lake that we shot in last year had a giant houseboat on it. We built a platform in the lake, so we could literally stand on it and shoot the zombies.

The Heaps set: it’s like being in an Easy Bake Oven. —Photo by AMC

It’s three and a half acres inside here (The Hilltop house). The walls have to be able to withstand the forces of nature, so this is all built as real as possible. This is designed to take 110-miles-an-hour winds. This is an actual sawmill that we found … [and] put here.

The idea of Barrington Hall Hilltop, as we call this, is a living history museum that Gregory and his fol lowers took over.

We have a working blacksmith shop that we use oftentimes for shots that we do here. We have sheds, pig pens, horse stables and a working garden. We have guard posts.

It’s a three-story shell. It took two months to build the house. If you go up on the balcony … you can literally see for miles, so when we shoot here, there are no digital effects on the set extensions.

We have a genius … on this show. His name’s Greg Nicotero—his whole approach to the gags that involves make-up effects (cuts, wounds) we do as much in camera as possible. We accentuate it with special effects. We have a great visual effects team.

Since Season 1, Greg has worked with us in production to train zombies, so we have a large pool of extras. We need a certain look for those people. Greg designs the makeup specifically for each person.

They’re trained on how to move. The most important thing is … they (zombies) don’t react to things that we (people) would react to.

We actually had for many years a zombie school that people would go to and learn how to move like zombies. Greg worked with them, but over time, we’ve built a large body of people we like to work with. We have different degrees of zombies.
In other words, we have “hero” zombies who are close to the camera and we have midrange zombies that are a little farther away from the camera. We do different makeups for all of that.
It is unbearably hot here in the summer. They’re wearing makeup, and they’re out in the sun all day. It’s hard work.

Oceanside is a continuing set. The idea of Oceanside … is that it’s on the Atlantic coast. We actually filmed exteriors of the beach in a place called Jekyll Island, Georgia.

The sign says Oceanside Motor Court. Our greens department uses real plants. We do things as real as we possibly can. Our crew gets a lot of fresh produce. We brought in tons of sand to spread on the ground to make it look beach-like.

I have done this show for eight years. This [season] has been, by far, the most ambitious, the hardest. I was about 25 years old when [it] started. It’s going to be the most thrilling season. There’s a lot that happens. If you like energy, this is your year.

Last season, we plunged to the depths of how bad things could be. This season, things rise up a little bit.

If you talk to Robert Kirkman (creator and executive producer), he thinks that this show is going to go for another 10 years.

E-mail rvnepales_5585@yahoo.com. Follow him at http://twitter.com/nepalesruben.

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Super Bowl hangover proving to be real for struggling Atlanta Falcons

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Prisco’s Power Rankings: Week 7

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The Atlanta Falcons are not going back to the Super Bowl. There, I said it.

Maybe the Super Bowl hangover is real and maybe it is a media phenomenon, but whether related to their historic meltdown to the Patriots in the title game last February or not, the Falcons are not playing winning football. Even in some victories they have been less than impressive, no one is mentioning Matt Ryan in any MVP conversations (in fact guys like Alex Smith and Deshaun Watson are getting far more accolades) and while there is still plenty of football to be played, the Falcons have seemingly quietly, been among the biggest disappointments to many (although personally I had then pegged for significant regression).

Amid all of the talk of the Patriots’ barely-there defense and Raiders’ collapsing offensive line and Dallas’ overall contraction and Pittsburgh’s Jeckyll and Hyde offense, well, the Falcons have kind of been skating by. Heck, on a national level I’ve heard more about Seattle’s perennial slow start than I have about Atlanta kind of fading away since opening their new stadium. But there are ample reasons for concern, especially with the Saints and Panthers making some power moves in the NFC South this month, and this hasn’t been nearly the same prolific outfit it was a year ago.

Losing Kyle Shanahan as offensive-guru and game planner and play caller was always going to be a massive blow, and its showing up all over. You aren’t seeing a new hero emerge from week to week and lesser cogs like Taylor Gabriel having nearly the impact they did in 2016. People aren’t being as schemed open nearly as often, it seems to me, and the pace, tempo, productivity and unpredictability isn’t nearly what led Atlanta to the cusp of a championship a year ago.

The 2016 Falcons were a force of nature on the offensive side of the ball, storming to early leads, with Ryan playing near-perfect football in the first quarter all season, allowing a still-evolving defense to hunt the opposing passer with a lead and putting the Falcons in position to kill off games in the second half with a multi-pronged run game. That’s hardly been the case this season, Atlanta has been one of the worst second-half teams in the NFL (whether related to choking against the Patriots or not) and the dirty (Bird) little secret is the running game is actually improved over even the gaudy standard set under Shanahan … yet the overall offensive output is shriveling.

Last season Atlanta scored 505 offensive points (eliminating special teams scores, defensive scores, etc), which was 38 more than any other team in the NFL, for a ridiculous average of 31.6 per game. This year, it’s not even close. Atlanta ranks 14th in offensive points scored, at 22.8 per game, almost 10 points less than a year ago. That is a game changer, folks, with the margin for victory – or defeat – now much tighter and leading to more close and late defeats (and had the Bears not dropped a pass in the end zone the Falcons would’ve lost in Chicago and it took a gift call to get them past the Lions in controversial fashion; this team could easily be 1-4).

Atlanta is on the same pace as a year ago in terms of explosive runs – gains of 10 and 20 yards or more on the ground – which helped fuel them a year ago. The yards per carry average is 4.79, up from 4.58 last season, and they are running the ball 26 times a game, up from 25 a year ago. The volume and output on the ground is greater, though the pace of rushing touchdowns is slightly down.

Where it’s fallen apart is through the air.

Ryan has been pedestrian, with six touchdown to six interceptions with a rating of 87.3. he tossed just seven touchdowns all of last season, he is averaging 8 yards per attempt after 9.3 a year ago and his completion percentage is down from 70 percent to 66 percent. He averaged over two touchdown passes per game in 2017 and is barely at one per game now. Ryan ranks dead last, among 24 qualified quarterbacks, in terms of biggest drop-off from his 2016 pass rating to his 2017 rating.

A year ago, that 17-0 lead over Miami at home would have ended up a 41-10 blowout. Instead, the Falcons found a way to lose the game outright, failing to score a single point in the second half. Ryan has looked like his second-half self from the Super Bowl – in the second half of games this season he has three touchdowns to five picks with a brutal rating of 72.6.

Atlanta’s minus-32 second-half scoring differential is third-worst in football (only Arizona and Indianapolis are worse) and, while overall NFL teams are 33-9 when leading at the half at home, the Falcons are just 1-2 in those instances in their new football palace (Dallas is 1-2 as well, accounting for nearly half of such losses in the entire league between 2016 NFC runaway division winners).

Could they reverse some of this? Sure. And getting Vic Beasley back on defense to lead the pass rush should certainly help. Perhaps, a Super Bowl rematch with the Patriots Sunday night will get them going, and if they can’t put up 30 on that atrocious defense they’ve really got issues. But then again, they play four of their next five on the road (Patriots, Jets, Panthers, Seahawks), and their December schedule looks daunting, too. Regardless, it’s not too soon to worry about this team, and where it’s going, especially in light of what went down in Houston in February.

Anyone looking for some hard news or new policies to come out of the just-completed owner’s meetings in New York didn’t know what they were looking for. This was always about furthering the dialogue between players and owners about means to address social injustice, and showing solidarity in that regard and continuing to identify areas where they can push for reform (criminal justice, mandatory minimums, bail reform, etc.).

While there are certainly still differences among owners about the ongoing matter of players not standing for the national anthem, and some of that sentiment was shared, the league’s hope moving forward, I’m told, is to have owners and teams focus on the tremendous good that players do in their communities. To assist them in that regard and to ignore the inevitable Tweets, rants and tirades from Donald Trump and other politicians who want to continue focusing on the protests as a matter of attacking the NFL and playing to their base and maintaining a divisive rhetoric. I’d suspect we hear a lot less from football people about protests and demonstrations moving forward in hopes that this issue diffuses (only a handful of players are kneeling or sitting around the league).

Defense a big concern for Bucs

The Bucs are the team with the deepest concerns in the NFC South, by far. They are in danger of getting hopelessly left behind and the defense has been nothing short of a failure. Much talk focuses on Jameis Winston and he needs to improve and with him injured right now he’ll remain the primary topic of discussion in Tampa. But that non-competitive defense is bad enough to undermine any offense in the league.

Tampa is getting exposed in the redzone. Opposing quarterbacks have a 119.4 rating, with nine touchdowns and no interceptions and just one sack on 29 passing attempts. You get inside the 20 on the Bucs, there is a good chance you will hit paydirt. Couple that with the fact that opponents are converting at a staggering 46.2 percent on third down, and you have the makings of one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Tampa has been stout against the run, but the lack of pass coverage is undermining them. Opposing quarterbacks are completing over 70 percent of their passes for a rating of 104, overall, and the Bucs pass rush has been beyond tepid. They are last in the NFL with six sacks, and when they do blitz, opposing passers have a 141 rating against them (behind only Oakland and New England).

More from the NFL
Looking for another reason to like the Bills and Chiefs? They are the only teams in the NFL yet to allow a giveaway point this season. Of course, you could also look at that and say a trend like that has to change soon, too. On the opposite side of the ledger, the Bears and Ravens have each given up a league-worst 40-percent of their overall points allowed off turnovers. And given the poor state of their offenses, a stat like that will doom them moving forward My buddy/favorite foil, Duval Pete Prisco, keeps telling us on The Pick Six Podcast that Jacksonville will be/is the best defense in the NFL. We keep laughing at him. The Jaguars are allowing a ridiculous 5.69 yards per carry on first down – worst in the NFL, and 5.33 yards per carry on second down, third worst on the NFL. That’s the only running downs in the league and that’s a huge problem. Show me one truly elite defense that is that inept against the run.Speaking of bad defense, the Patriots have allowed 14 passing touchdowns already, tied for the most in the NFL, and 154 offensive points against, a touchdown more than any other club (San Francisco is next worst). They still have a back-up quarterback who never plays who they pretend they would never trade under any circumstances. Only, the trade deadline is now less than two weeks away and that’s their last/best/only chance to actually improve this horrific unit, you know, if they want to try to win another Super Bowl with a 40-year old Tom Brady and all.Part of the reason the AFC North has been so difficult to watch much of this season? NFL leaders in giveaways: DeShone Kizer (12), Ben Roethlisberger (9), Joe Flacco (8), Andy Dalton (8). Not a good look.Kareem Hunt leads the NFL in fourth-quarterback rushing, with 37 attempts for 304 yards, and is tied for the NFL lead with three rushing TDs in that quarter. Andy Reid will ride that rookie when he gets the lead. Another note on the Chiefs, Alex Smith is the NFL’s best quarterback in the shotgun so far this season, going 104-for-134 (77 percent!) for 1,239 yards (second-best in NFL), with 11 TDs, no picks, and a rating of 132.6.

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Atlanta Committee for Progress Releases “Go-Forward Priorities” for City of Atlanta

Five key focus areas; "economic opportunity for all" major theme

ATLANTA, Oct. 13, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — The Atlanta Committee for Progress (ACP), a partnership between the city’s top business, civic and academic leaders, and the Mayor of Atlanta, today released a public policy platform with priorities for the city’s future and recommendations for the next mayoral administration. The overarching goal of the ACP’s recommendations is to accelerate Atlanta’s competitiveness for residents, businesses and investment while expanding economic opportunity for all.

The five "Go Forward" focus areas are: (1) Maintain a financially strong city; (2) Expand economic opportunity for all; (3) Invest in transit connectivity; (4) Strengthen student achievement and (5) Keep Atlanta safe.

The recommendations set specific goals for each focus area, including keeping the city’s general fund reserve balance above 20 percent of the city’s operating budget. Since 2010, the city’s reserves have grown from $7.4 million to more than $175 million under Mayor Kasim Reed’s leadership. The priorities also include an increased focus on public-private partnerships to support workforce development initiatives and career readiness of Atlanta public school students.

"We’re at a critical moment in time in Atlanta’s growth and development," said Duriya Farooqui, ACP executive director and former chief operating officer of the city of Atlanta. "The city has made tremendous progress under Mayor Shirley Franklin and Mayor Kasim Reed. We must build on that momentum so Atlanta can continue to thrive over the next decade and beyond."

Created in 2003 by Mayor Franklin, the ACP is an example of what makes Atlanta great: Leaders from across all sectors working together for the common good of the city. The ACP has played a leading role in supporting major initiatives and policies, such as the purchase of the papers of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.; the creation of the Atlanta BeltLine Partnership; the enactment of the city of Atlanta’s pension reform; and the passage of the T-SPLOST.

More recent ACP initiatives include this year’s launch of Engage Ventures, which was first envisioned by Mayor Reed. Engage was founded by 10 leading Atlanta companies, in partnership with Georgia Tech, to support entrepreneurs and generate more high-tech jobs in the city. The go-to-market focused accelerator and venture fund invests in startups selected into the program, connects entrepreneurs with advisors and gives entrepreneurs what they need most — market access and distribution.

"As business leaders, we are deeply committed to helping Atlanta remain a city that attracts new business investment and a talented workforce," said John Dyer, ACP chairman for 2017 and chief executive officer of Cox Enterprises. "These five focus areas ensure we proactively address issues such as income inequality and lack of access to job training."

To read more about the Go Forward priorities and learn more about the ACP, click here: www.atlprogress.org.

About the ACP
The Atlanta Committee for Progress (ACP) is a unique public-private partnership founded in 2003 by Mayor Shirley Franklin. Today, the ACP includes more than 40 highly-engaged chief executive officers, university presidents and civic leaders who offer expertise in service to Atlanta and its future development under the leadership of Mayor Kasim Reed and 2017 Chairman John Dyer, president and CEO of Cox Enterprises. The organization’s key focus areas have been public sector fiscal accountability; economic development; infrastructure and transportation; K-12 public education; technology and innovation; and enhanced quality of life.

Go Forward Priorities

For more than 15 years, the ACP has forged a partnership between our Mayor and business leaders to support positive change in Atlanta. Together, we’ve taken big strides to strengthen the city’s financial position, spur economic development, invest in infrastructure and public safety, support our public schools, and enhance the quality of life in our city. And much more is possible.

We are ready to accelerate Atlanta’s competitiveness for residents, businesses and investment. With bold priorities and measurable goals, Atlanta can achieve its unequaled potential over the next five to 10 years. It will remain critical to ensure the future success of Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Atlanta Beltline, and Westside development. In addition, focus is needed on key priorities to help Atlanta Go Higher.

1. Maintain a Financially Strong City
Fiscal health is fundamental to a successful city. A strong balance sheet, ample cash reserves and efficient delivery of services enable Atlanta to invest, grow and expand opportunity for all its citizens. In the wake of the Great Recession, the city has improved its credit rating eight positions to AA+ with the three major ratings agencies, Moody’s, Standard & Poors and Fitch, allowing for bond financing at favorable rates. In addition, under the Reed Administration, the city’s cash reserves (rainy day fund) grew from $7.4 million in January 2010 to more than $175 million.

Goal: Maintain the city’s general fund reserves above 20 percent of its operating budget.

Why It Matters: Atlanta must continue to strengthen its balance sheet, improve its expenditure-to-reserve ratio and maintain a well-funded pension plan. It must be prepared to respond to the next economic downturn and unforeseen circumstances, without draining its cash reserves. A robust rainy day fund also allows Atlanta to maintain and improve its AA+ credit status to remain competitive with peer cities such as Austin, Charlotte, Denver and Seattle. A top-tier rating expands Atlanta’s capacity to access credit markets for bond financing and municipal improvement projects that expand growth and opportunity for all citizens.

What It Will Take: Maintaining the city’s general fund reserves at above 20 percent of budget will require a Mayor and City Council who wisely manage the city’s revenues and expenditures, prudently oversee the city’s airport and watershed enterprise funds, and develop and approve balanced budgets without imposing undue tax increases on citizens. They must exercise discipline to outpace inflation with cost control and efficiencies in delivery services. In addition, pension costs and investments must be well-managed to sustain pension funding levels, with improved governance. It’s a process that requires strong fiscal management and oversight.

2. Expand Opportunity for All
Although overall poverty rates in our region have declined in recent years, a quarter of the residents in Atlanta live below the poverty line or struggle to make ends meet. We need to expand access to jobs across all skill levels, while maintaining our low cost of living and increasing our availability of affordable housing with transit connectivity.

Goal: Increase access to jobs through workforce development and thriving affordable neighborhoods.

Why It Matters: Our city cannot fulfill its potential unless more of our citizens have access to the middle class. Rising income inequality is a major barrier to overall growth and development of the city. A quarter of Atlanta’s residents live in poverty while unemployment rates for low-skill and mid-skill jobs outpace the region. No one wins if the city is divided between the haves and the have-nots.

What It Will Take: Atlanta can leverage its concentration of Fortune 500 and high growth companies to create a stronger pipeline from high school to technical training to jobs matched with skill level. Working with public and private organizations to support job development and career preparedness, beginning with public school students, is also essential. A balanced approach to growth, such as the Atlanta City Design project, that includes a strong focus on affordable mixed-income neighborhoods, with access to public transit, is critical.

3. Strengthen Student Achievement
Over the past several years, Atlanta has made great strides to improve its public education system through dynamic new leadership, an action-oriented turnaround plan, and new public-private partnerships. The School Board and Atlanta Public School system (APS) have come a long way since a cheating scandal and the potential loss of accreditation in 2010. Now we must commit to build upon the gains in student graduation rates and achievement, and better prepare students for career success.

Goal: Improve the college graduation rate and career readiness of APS students.

Why It Matters: Raising the number of students who graduate not only from high school but also from college and/or technical schools is critical for the success of the city. The school district’s leaders have worked to improve high school graduation rates and those efforts must continue. Atlanta must also push to see those who graduate from high school go on to complete either a two-year or four-year degree program or enroll in job training that leads to employment. While APS high school graduation rates have increased significantly to 77 percent, the college completion rate is about 15 percent.

What It Will Take: We need to continue to support partnerships, such as Achieve Atlanta, that support post-secondary education for APS students to improve college graduation rates. In addition, we should invest in partnerships to support career preparation in APS high schools, job training and placement services, including programs that target non-college educated youth and ex-offenders who are working to improve their life outcomes.

4. Improve Transit Connectivity
Good infrastructure powers businesses, connects workers to their jobs and creates opportunities for struggling communities. Atlanta’s voters recognized the needs for new investments through the passage of new general obligation bonds, the T-SPLOST and a tax increase for expanding MARTA. To improve commutes, reduce congestion and connect all city neighborhoods, Atlanta should continue to effectively invest in public transportation access while adopting policies that promote livable, walkable neighborhoods with mixed-income development.

Goal: Build infrastructure for sustainable growth, density and last-mile connectivity.

Why It Matters: More than two-thirds of Atlanta households are more than a mile from a transit stop. Access is especially important for low and middle-income citizens so they can get to jobs, schools and other vital services. Increasing density in historically underserved neighborhoods makes city services more efficient and builds stronger communities — leading to a safer, more livable and vibrant city.

What It Will Take: We must adopt a thoughtful and strategic plan for allocating new public dollars generated by sales taxes and bond proceeds to ensure the needs of all neighborhoods and citizens are being met. The $3 billion in investments that have been authorized must be managed effectively and allocated transparently to maintain the public trust for supporting renewals in future capital investment.

5. Keep Atlanta Safe
Since 2009, major crime in Atlanta has dropped a remarkable 37 percent, including a 20 percent reduction in violent offenses, under the leadership of first Chief George N. Turner and now Chief Erika Shields. Mayor Kasim Reed deemed safety as his number one priority and expanded the city’s police force to 2,000 police officer positions — for the first time in the city’s history.

The city invested in new policing technology and worked with neighborhood stakeholders to ensure that their concerns were being heard and addressed through a new focus on community policing. While the city is on the right trajectory, there remains more work to do — and this should be a key focus area of the next administration.

Goal: Reduce crime by 15 percent with a focus on technology, youth and repeat offenders.

Why It Matters: No city can thrive when crime is high. Residents don’t feel safe and live in fear, more vulnerable young people become susceptible to gangs and violence, neighborhoods falter, and economic development and investment tapers off — sometimes grinding to a halt. That’s not the future we envision for Atlanta, and we look forward to working with a Mayor and City Council that continue to make public safety its number one priority.

What It Will Take: To keep Atlanta safe, city leaders must continue to invest in the police department with cutting-edge technology such as gunshot sensors and surveillance information technology, maintain our recruitment, training and retention efforts for police officers, and partner with the Atlanta Police Foundation. In addition, city data shows that repeat offenders account for more than 7,000 crimes in a year — and nearly three in four receive no jail time. A new approach to address repeat offenders could translate into a meaningful reduction in crime. Finally, efforts such as the @Promise Youth Center that offers youth a second chance and services for improving their lives, have the potential to seed a generational impact in Atlanta.

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks preseason game No. 1: Live updates and chat

Atlanta HawksATLCleveland CavaliersCLE

CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Cleveland Cavaliers will open the preseason tonight, as they host the Atlanta Hawks.

LeBron James, who is still day to day with a left ankle injury that is not believed to be serious, will not play. But newcomers Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Jeff Green, Jose Calderon and others will make their Cavaliers preseason debuts.

Follow along in the comments section as Joe Vardon and I bring you observations and analysis throughout the game. You can also ask any questions you may have and chat with other fans below.

Game 1: Cavs (0-0) vs. Hawks (0-0)

Tip off: 7:00 p.m. at Quicken Loans Arena

TV/radio: Fox Sports Ohio; WTAM AM/1100, 87.7 FM (ESP)

Cavs probable starting lineup: Derrick Rose, J.R. Smith, Dwyane Wade, Jae Crowder and Kevin Love.

Hawks probable starting lineup: Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Ersan Ilyasova and Dewayne Dedmon.

FREQUENTLY REFRESH this page to get the latest updates. If you’re viewing this on a mobile app, click here to get updates and comment.

LeBron James tests sore ankle, hoists 3-pointers prior to Cavaliers’ first preseason game Wednesday (video)

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Despite being ruled out of the Cleveland Cavaliers’ preseason opener Wednesday night against the Atlanta Hawks, LeBron James was on the court early, going through his usual game night routine.

After taking a few free throws, James moved beyond the 3-point line where he hoisted a handful of triples to cap his workout. He needed to make three in a row before moving to the next spot. After a sluggish start from the left corner, James started to pick it up while new teammate and buddy Dwyane Wade watched.

James suffered an ankle injury on the second day of practice, one week ago, when he stepped on Cedi Osman’s foot. James hasn’t practiced since and is currently listed as day to day.

Nearly two hours before tipoff, head coach Tryonn Lue provided an update.

"Went through shootaround today, but still day to day," he said. "We don’t want to rush it, don’t want him to push it. But he said he feels a lot better."

The Cavs will return to the practice floor Thursday and James’ practice availability is not yet known. Their second preseason game is Friday night at Quicken Loans Arena.

Tyronn Lue said three friends were among those shot at Las Vegas concert

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue said three of his friends were among the more than 500 injured at a Las Vegas concert Sunday night in which 59 people were killed.

Lue, 40, has lived in Las Vegas for the past nine summers. A gunman opened fire at the conclusion of country singer Jason Aldean’s concert in what became the largest shooting massacre in U.S. history. In addition to the hundreds wounded by the gunfire, there were also fans who were injured in the frantic effort to leave the concert area.

"I knew a lot of people that were affected, a lot of people that were there," Lue said Wednesday, before the Cavs’ preseason opener against the Hawks. "Just not about my people, but just a horrible thing to have to go through, especially when I lived there for nine years and knowing all the people I know out there that work at the Mandalay Bay and Aria, all different casinos. Having to go through that, being at that concert. It was a tough thing to go through.

"I feel sorry for all the loved ones of each one that lost someone or been badly hurt," Lue continued. "It’s just not a good thing. I knew you guys would probably bring it up. I’ve been touched by a few people who’d gotten injured, who’d gotten shot. Just a tough position to be in.

"When you’re going through your phone and so many people who lived out there, were great friends of yours and took care of you, you’ve been around for so long. It’s just tough to go through that experience."

Lue said 15 of his friends attended the concert, and all three of his friends who were shot are still alive.

Lue owned a home in Las Vegas but sold it two years ago and has stayed the past two summers at the Aria hotel and casino.

The shooter opened fire from a room at Mandalay Bay, which is at the opposite end of the Vegas strip.

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