Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Prediction, preview, pick to win

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-6) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (6-4)

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium. TV: Fox, Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth, Shannon Spake (field reporter).

SERIES HISTORY: 48th regular-season meeting. Bucs lead series, 24-23, having won three of the past four games. Since the NFC South was formed in 2002, Atlanta has a 15-14 edge.

KEYS TO THE GAME: Last week against Miami, Tampa Bay gave up pass pays of 61, 49 and 45 yards. The Buccaneers’ defense cannot afford to surrender that kind of yardage to the high-powered Falcons offense.

With running back Devonta Freeman still in the concussion protocol and likely to miss another game, the Falcons must continue to target wide receiver Julio Jones. If Atlanta stretches the field, running back Tevin Coleman could find more open lanes.

Jones was targeted 30 times in the past three weeks — catching 17 passes for 246 yards — but Atlanta’s leading receiver hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since Oct. 22 against New England.

The Falcons have played their way back into the crowded NFC playoff picture, but with games against the 8-2 Vikings and 8-2 Saints coming up, this one is critical if they’re going to stay there.

Committing to getting the ball to wide receiver Mike Evans helped the Buccaneers last week.

Coming off a one-catch, 13-yard performance, Evans caught five for 92 in Tampa Bay’s 30-20 win in Miami.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was 22-for-37 for 275 yards and two touchdowns last week, will benefit from a second week of practice with the first team, in place of Jameis Winston, who has been ruled out with a shoulder injury.

–Falcons WR Julio Jones vs. Bucs CB Brent Grimes. Grimes has two interceptions. He’s quick to diagnose the play and tries to make plays on the ball. Jones has just one touchdown reception this season, but he leads the Falcons in receptions (54) and yards (786).

–Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant. Evans leads the Bucs in receptions (45) and yards (624) and has four touchdowns. He caught five passes for 92 yards last week against Miami after serving his one-game suspension for shoving Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Trufant returned a Russell Wilson interception 43 yards against the Seahawks. The Falcons are playing more man-to-man defense, but the Bucs are not expecting Trufant to match up with Evans.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Falcons RB Terron Ward. The Falcons are preparing as if they will be without running back Devonta Freeman for a second consecutive game. He’s in the league’s concussion protocol and missed the Seattle game. Running backs Tevin Coleman and Terron Ward filled in against the Seahawks. Coleman rushed 20 times for 43 yards, while Ward had 31 yards on six carries. Look for Ward to get some more of the work against the Bucs.

FAST FACTS: Tampa Bay QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has won his past two starts. He passed for 275 yards and two touchdowns last week. He has seven touchdowns vs. three interceptions in his past four games. … RB Doug Martin has 196 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown in his past two games vs. Atlanta. In four career games at Atlanta, he has 388 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown. … WR Mike Evans has 483 receiving yards (96.6 per game) and five touchdowns in his past five games against the Falcons. He has six touchdowns in his past eight games within the NFC South. … Rookie TE O.J. Howard has three touchdowns in his past three road games. He ranks third among NFL rookies with four receiving touchdowns. … TE Cameron Brate had touchdown catch in the last meeting between the teams. Since 2016, he ranks second among NFL TEs with 12 touchdown catches. … DT Gerald McCoy had a sack last week. He has five sacks and a forced fumble in his past five games against Atlanta. … LB Lavonte David has four forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries in his past six games. Since 2013, he is the only NFL player with 700 tackles (720) and 15 forced fumbles (16). … LB Kwon Alexander led the Bucs with eight tackles and had an interception in Week 11. He has two sacks, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in four career games vs. Atlanta. … CB Brent Grimes had 13 interceptions and in six seasons with the Falcons. (2007-12). … Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has 14 touchdowns vs. one interception in his past seven home games against Tampa Bay. He aims for his third straight 300-yard game against the Bucs. He has thrown touchdown passes in 28 consecutive games, the longest active streak. Since 2016, he is tied for the NFL lead with 53 touchdown passes and ranks third with 7,511 yards. … RB Tevin Coleman aims for his fourth game in a row with a touchdown. He had 117 yards from scrimmage (95 receiving) in his last home game vs. Tampa Bay. … WR Julio Jones ranks second in the NFC with 786 receiving yards. He has 521 yards (104.2 per game) and six touchdowns in five career home games against the Buccaneers. … WR Mohamed Sanu has a touchdown catch in three of his past four games. He had 80 receiving yards and a touchdown in the last home meeting. … TE Austin Hooper had a touchdown catch in last meeting. … LB Vic Beasley Jr. has seven sacks and three forced fumbles in his past nine home games. … DT Grady Jarrett has two sacks in his past three games vs. Tampa Bay. … DE Adrian Clayborn returned a fumble 10 yards for a touchdown in Week 11, his second career touchdown. … CB Desmond Trufant has two interceptions in his past three games against the Bucs. He had an interception last week, too.

PREDICTION: The Falcons likely saved their season by beating Dallas and Seattle the past two weeks. And, while Matt Ryan has yet to return to his 2016 form, he should be able to outduel the Bucs’ Ryan Fitzpatrick.

OUR PICK: Falcons, 26-17.

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Falcons vs. Cowboys recap: Atlanta’s best win of the season means hope for the future

I’ll be blunt: Even with Tyron Smith and Ezekiel Elliott out, I was worried the Dallas Cowboys would beat the Atlanta Falcons. Once Atlanta threw an interception on their first series and surrendered an early lead, that worry cemented into an ugly probability in my mind, and I braced for what was coming next.

So imagine my surprise when what followed was pure dominance by Atlanta, a 27 point explosion with zero points from Dallas, and a truly historic performance from an underrated defensive end. Imagine my surprise when the Falcons ended Sunday night at 5-4 and looking like the best versions of themselves once again, just in time for a road trip to Seattle. It was an encouraging, surreal performance that re-kindled my hope for this Falcons team, and minus that one unfortunate pick, they did all the things they were supposed to do in this one.

Start with the offense, which lost Devonta Freeman almost immediately. They got an efficient performance from Matt Ryan, a season-best game from Tevin Coleman, and great performances from virtually all their receivers, which helped make up for the fact that the Cowboys were killing the Atlanta offensive line early on. They managed 27 points on the day, and the execution was excellent and Steve Sarkisian’s play calling was, I thought, very good.

Then pivot to the defense, which turned in its best performance of the year. The Falcons exploded for eight sacks, nearly had two picks, and forced two fumbles while holding Dallas to just seven points in the contest. Adrian Clayborn basically single-handedly won this game for the defense with six sacks and two forced fumbles that simultaneously incapacitated and demoralized the Cowboys, and the rest of the defense did everything they needed to do to stymie Prescott, the team’s only effective player.

It was the kind of dominant effort that can make you believe dangerous things, like Atlanta going on a run and being able to handle contenders. If they’ve truly turned the corner, those dangerous thoughts may even come true, but for now it’s too soon to say whether this will be that inflection point or simply the 2014 beatdown of the Buccaneers. No matter what happens from here, though, this was exactly the kind of enjoyable beatdown we needed to stay invested in and happy with this team.

Seattle’s next, but at this moment in time, the Falcons look like a resurgent offense and excellent defense in search of better results. The Falcons thus far have been defined by their frustrating inability to string together quality performances, so they’re once again at an important crossroads. This was their first truly dominant win, however, and thus a reason for a spark of optimism at last.

Here’s our full recap. Enjoy, please.

The Good
Matt Ryan was truly excellent in this football game. He had a bit of a high throw to Mohamed Sanu on his interception and one overthrow to Marvin Hall, but otherwise he showed excellent pocket presence with the line collapsing around him and stepped up to throw lasers all over the field. He finished with 22 completions on 29 attempts, 215 yards, two touchdowns, and one unlucky pick. The latter have defined his season to this point, but the former numbers should be considered a good sign. With Devonta Freeman out, Tevin Coleman had to carry the load, and he did. After getting repeatedly stymied early on, he and the offensive line found a bit of a rhythm, and he finished with a respectable 83 yards on 20 carries, with a touchdown plunge in the mix. He is a very different runner from Freeman, and it will change the offense if he needs to be the featured back going forward, but I have a lot of confidence in his ability. Julio Jones was quiet—he had just six catches for 57 yards—but each catch was made with a high degree of difficulty, and he delivered. He almost always does. Taylor Gabriel had his best game of the season, and it’s no coincidence that coincided with one of the team’s better offensive performances. He finished with a team-high 58 yards on three receptions and added a 15 yard carry, punishing the Cowboys defenders every time he got the ball in his hands. When the team springs Gabriel and allows his speed to shine, the Falcons are a much more dangerous football team, and I hope they learn from that. The offensive line really rallied nicely in the second half after a very rough first half. The Falcons picked up 17 points after halftime and looked much better running the ball, and the line deserves a lot of credit for not just falling apart. Adrian Clayborn had an easy matchup in Chaz Green, sure, but he was absolutely dominant in this one. He had three sacks and a forced fumble in the first half, plus a hit that forced a third down Dak Prescott throw right into the dirt, and he looked like the most dominant player on the field, period, in that half of football.

Then Clayborn got a fourth sack in the second half. And then a fifth. And then a sixth, with an accompanying strip that resulted in a Falcons turnover. It was one of the most amazing performances I’ve ever seen by a Falcons defender, even with the level of competition, and an absolute joy to watch.

Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford each had a shaky play or two early—though Trufant got a pick called back by penalty—but Dak Prescott isn’t sitting there for Adrian Clayborn to destroy if the coverage breaks down, and the coverage rarely broke down. The Falcons’ secondary doesn’t always get the credit it deserves for the work it does, so shout out to them. I said after the Jets and Panthers games that I felt like Steve Sarkisian had done a better job calling those games, even if the Carolina game was marred by absolutely atrocious execution. If those were encouraging signs, this game was the first effort since Green Bay where I felt like the offense was firing on all cylinders and creative enough to win. Sark and company managed to spring Taylor Gabriel, feature Tevin Coleman effectively, and overcome the loss of Devonta Freeman. All in all, an encouraging game for the players and the coach alike, and one that should temporarily quiet the #FireSark talk.
The Ugly
The pass protection and run blocking were very brutally bad at times in this game, something that could be a limiting factor against a defense that has it together a bit more. Wes Schweitzer struggled again, which is getting a bit worrisome, and overall the line just wasn’t getting it done early on. They rallied, as I mentioned above, but this team will be somewhat capped by how well their offensive line fares. What else am I really going to linger on right now? I’m happy, you should be happy, let’s all be happy.
The Wrapup

Game MVP

Adrian Clayborn. My god, he ate Dallas! All of it! He didn’t even use a fork.

One Takeaway

This Falcons team truly does still have dominant performances within them. We had hoped, but seeing it confirmed matters a great deal with the playoffs still within striking distance.

Next Week

The Falcons take to the road one more time to face off against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s a bit of a mess at the moment, so the Falcons will hope they can take advantage. Check out the excellent Field Gulls for more.

Final Word

Impressive.

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The Hunt: Atlanta’s hidden serial killers

GO DEEPER: Watch the full investigation from 11Alive Chief Investigator Monday night at 11 on #TheLateFeed and then discuss the story on our Facebook page.

ATLANTA – Our city holds a deadly secret.

Someone’s been hunting, strangling, murdering women, dating back to 1970s.

According to a homicide detective-turned professor and a former data journalist, Atlanta is likely hiding some of the most prolific serial killers in U.S. history.

They’ve never been caught, and their crimes… left cold.

Numbers, data and an algorithm have done what detectives haven’t been able to do—outline the largest cluster of unsolved strangulation murders of women in the nation—more than 130 women who were strangled or asphyxiated to death, spanning over four decades. Most of these murders were committed within the city of Atlanta; all within the metro area.

Nearly 100 of those cases were reported as unsolved to the FBI.

News once plastered the TV, scrolled across newspapers, warning, informing, questioning.

“Women were warned to lock their doors and look out for each other,” 11Alive reported.

“She was beaten beyond recognition and strangled with a metal cord tightened around her throat."

“The women were all strangled and sexually assaulted…”

“The number one suspect in the murders of at least four women."

“Homicide detectives searched through the thick brush of a Southwest Atlanta lot looking for clues in the death of an identified woman…”

“Was she killed here, or did someone dump her body here? All questions homicide detectives are trying to answer tonight…”

But those reports didn’t lead to any clear-cut connection or illuminate a serial killer’s identity.

No one connected the dots. Until now.

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“The public is fascinated with Jeffrey Dahmer, and the Zodiac, and the Son of Sam – the most important killers are the ones that we don’t even know about yet,” said Michael Arntfield, a former detective who leads The Cold Case Society in Canada shedding light on these cases—and making those connections.

“The most prolific serial strangler in American history, or multiple offenders operating in the same city with the same M.O. at the same time – all undetected,” he said.

The Cold Case Society 

Arntfield and the Cold Case Society study Thomas Hargrove’s eye-opening data.

Hargrove, a former journalist and the founder of the Murder Accountability Project, a non-profit in Washington, D.C., created an algorithm from not only FBI homicide data, but from police departments nationwide—and now is the most complete homicide database in the nation.

Math has done what forensics could not—create a pattern and pinpointing probable serial killers. And it’s his algorithm that signaled an alert over an Atlanta strangulation cluster spanning several years.

The victims of Atlanta’s unsolved murders now live only as zeros and ones on a computer hard drive in Hargrove’s home office in Alexandria, Va.

“We’ve assembled records now on 751,000 murders in the United States. And what the algorithm does is try to group those murders into meaningful clusters of murders,” Hargrove said scrolling across his computer screen full of colorful dots symbolizing killings nationwide.

The Murder Accountability Project mines the data, exploring connections between homicides across the country and creates clusters, indicating plausible serial killers. The algorithm seeks for similarities between who was murdered, how they were killed, where and when.

And the biggest cluster in the nation is Atlanta’s strangulation murders.

But, why couldn’t this just be a series of random events perpetrated by multiple individuals?

Approximately five percent of murders are by strangulation—however, 25 percent of serial killers’ M.O. is strangulation, he said.

“Why do we feel pretty confident that you have multiple serial killers in Atlanta? Because of mathematics. Strangulation is relatively rare. It is not rare in Atlanta,” Hargrove said.

Atlanta murder by the numbers

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Atlanta murder by the numbers

“[It’s] by far the largest series in modern history,” Hargrove said. “The odds of this being 133 individual killers who just were astonishingly lucky.”

“I would bet my house that, no, there are multiple serial killers at work, and they were very successful.”

The vast majority of those cases remain unsolved.

In the mid-90s, nine Atlanta prostitutes were murdered. Back then, the city was looking for a serial strangler. But at least five individual killers were eventually arrested.

The killings continued, and multiple cases remain unsolved.

“It’s almost as if you had a convention of serial killers who were stranglers, and you had them in Atlanta over many, many years,” Hargrove said.

And Atlanta, according to him, is unlike any other city.

“What is breathtaking is how these murders are quite different than what happens in most of America,” Hargrove said about other cities’ strangulation murders of women.

“About 80 percent of murders of women are solved. Someone is arrested. That’s because most women are killed by intimates – a boyfriend or a husband. Most of the time we get the guy who kills women. In this particular cluster, that hardly ever happened.”

Arntfield, who is also on the Murder Accountability Project board of directors, is a professor of criminology at Ontario’s Western University.

He and his student volunteers, who are part of the Cold Case Society, based in London, Ontario, are working with Atlanta investigators to confirm links between the killings, and to identify possible serial killers who were previously unknown to police.

From 1985 to 2016, there were 97 strangulation victims, and only 22 of the murders had been solved by the time of the report to the FBI for those years.

The Cold Case Society 

While most of these murders occurred before Arntfield’s students were born, they have the opportunity to approach the cases in a different way than a conventional detective might.

“The first victim in this series of killings, she was found dead March 1 in her apartment. She had been sexually assaulted and smothered with a pillow,” Brikena Qamili, currently a law student and the Atlanta Cluster Team Leader, said looking up from her research on her laptop. “We suspect that one or two serial killers were probably behind that cluster.”

“That’s a huge break, that someone can identify this guy and had a bad date with him,” Arntfield said in the intimate classroom of a half-dozen volunteer students and part of the Cold Case Society.

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With cooperation from the Atlanta Police Department, Arntfield said, they have 44 names of victims.

“Now, we can begin doing victim work-ups on, to determine if there’s a common lifestyle characteristic, a common routine activity, if there’s a common neighborhood,” he said.

The team, however, is perplexed by the strangulation murders of more than a dozen elderly women over a 30-year period.

Much like the prostitute murders, there were arrests, but the killings continued sporadically for decades.

“Thirty years is almost unheard of,” Arntfield said.

And that means, multiple serial killers over three decades.

“We have multiples. Within just the sub-set of the elderly victims, and home-invasion strangulations which of themselves are extraordinarily rare,” he concluded.

We are just getting started on our hunt for Atlanta’s previously unknown serial killers.

For the victims who never got justice.

For the families who never got answers.

For the killers who never got caught.

Do you have a tip or clue that could solve these cold cases? Do you know who the serial killers are? Send 11Alive investigators, Brendan Keefe and Jessica Noll an email at TheHunt@11Alive.com.

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